DERBY DAY!!!!!

For the 133rd time, the top healthy three year olds in the world converge on Churchill Downs for a shot at glory. For the 53rd year the best Dad in the world has walked the Earth protecting and serving. Known as Uncle Phil to Matt Nesspor, my Dad is truly a superstar so I hope he has a great day.


I have so many derby memories that I thought I could share a couple. In 1999 I successfully picked Charasmatic at 36-1 to win the Derby. I remeber touting Invisble Ink at 55-1 to run second. And of course Giacomo was my live longshot two years ago. Most off all it is day to spend with those closest to me enjoying the greatest 2 minutes in sports.


Here is my analysis of this years race:

Sedgefield - never experienced dirt...fact that Bejarano sticks with Dominican is no vote of confidence either. Throw out.
Curlin - Has done nothing wrong - probably the second choice when the gates open. I'm leaning to play against in terms of where I believe the best horses are coming from. The Oaklawn bunch just didn't look like it did the last two years. play at 8-1 or better but you won't get those odds.
Zanjero - Intriguing horse from off form...beat a head in the key prep of the season...gaining back in March against Circular Quay. The pace up front should give him something to run at. Under-rated rider adds to the plus column. LIVE LONGSHOT. (take 25-1 or better.)
Storm In May - someone had to run second in Arkansas....prefer others.
Imawildandcrazyguy - has excuses for most of his misses this spring. Had problems with statebreds as a 2 year old. I'll pass
Cowtown Cat - my friend Seth Benzel saddled this one in Illinois to a win. Pletchers mystery horse if you ask me...may be peaking. a flyer at 40-1 or more.
Street Sense - the class of the race...similar schedule that led to romp in the Breeders Cup. He exits hands down what is the key race leading to the derby and he is a must use. Again you must use him. Good connections and he runs well down the stretch.
Hard Spun - He may have ran his race 5 days ago. Nervous that he will be on the lead...super talented but may have problems with the distance.
Liquidity - he may like the surface and that could be significant with rain...likes to hit the board. Others are much more accomplished but from a handicapping view I would use him in supers and trifectas. Unlike others, he has posted a three figure speed figure which puts him in the mix.. proceed with caution.
Teuflesberg - exits the key race with neglible difference between top five. But was fading when the real running started. I'll pass.

Bwana Bull - just made the race. Off form he should be long odds but his chances are unrealistic - unless he didn't care for the Santa Anita surface. Could be whole different horse in Kentucky. Has tactical speed which is dangerous in these races as the winner is usually close to the pace. Interesting at 50-1 or more.
Nobiz Like Shobiz - his own trainer questions his ability to get the distance. He is super talented but this trip coul grueling for him. must rate to get a piece and will probably be an underlay -- demand value to use him.
Sam P. - No horse with this name should ever win the Derby - not cool enough. Posted good speed number over the track. Demand 30-1 or better and he could be a nice surprise based on his probable ability to get the distance and affinity for Churchill. Under rated rider to boot from good barn.
Scat Daddy - Hasn't raced since Florida Derby and I'm feeling that the race was not nearly as tough as the Bluegrass. Dominant in Florida but posted lowest career number at Churchill. I'll pass on him.
Tiago - closed well to win in Sanat Anita Derby.Has a nice story as his half bro Giacomo got the roses two years ago. Will probably be at decent odds and he will come running late....but to much traffic down the lane could compromise his chances. use underneath.
Circular Quay - Johnny V pilots what Pletcher believes is his strongest contender. I think he will come up short and tire due to the time off. I won't use him but I've been wrong before.
Stormello - couldn't beat Scat Daddy and that should be enough for me.
Any Given Saturday -faded against Nobiz like Shobiz. Will undoubtedly be a nice one but it could be too early for him make noise in this race. I'll pass.
Dominican - Exits the key race as the winner. Probably the wise guy horse and he may run even better off the polytrack races. He is legit to make some noise so put him on your tickets. Seems primed to be a contender.
Great Hunter - Will be a huge overlay off his 5th place the key race. Couldn't handle Street Sense at Churchill in October. I'm under the impression that this could be the horse to take the Derby - until the post draw. He will be way the hell out at the break and the need to save ground could present problems on the first turn. The race could have been over for him when he took the 20 hole... too much to do.

My selections: 7-3-9-19-6-15 Live longshot - 3

Good luck from Tim in Israel. This is what I bet these days.