Derby 2011 Picks

There are some serious criticisms of this years 3 year old crop, most notably how slow they are. Well many things can change from February to May and some of the works have been pretty impressive. Namely Shackleford's bullet work and Stay Thirsty's April 24th work which seem to put them in a great spot to perform Saturday.

Here are my picks in order of finish and why:

1. Nehro - coming late in OP; keeps improving ; bred for the distance
2. Midnight Interlude - lightly raced hasn't regressed since his SA derby win
3. Shackleford - if he can get lose on the lead they won't catch him
4. Dialed In - the probable favorite but will he get there, because Ice Box didn't last year for Nick Z.
5. Stay thirsty - Play underneath in exactas and trifectas, blinkers off and out of FL.
6. Twice the Appeal - Has a great running style and great derby jock.

DERBY DAY!!!!!

For the 133rd time, the top healthy three year olds in the world converge on Churchill Downs for a shot at glory. For the 53rd year the best Dad in the world has walked the Earth protecting and serving. Known as Uncle Phil to Matt Nesspor, my Dad is truly a superstar so I hope he has a great day.


I have so many derby memories that I thought I could share a couple. In 1999 I successfully picked Charasmatic at 36-1 to win the Derby. I remeber touting Invisble Ink at 55-1 to run second. And of course Giacomo was my live longshot two years ago. Most off all it is day to spend with those closest to me enjoying the greatest 2 minutes in sports.


Here is my analysis of this years race:

Sedgefield - never experienced dirt...fact that Bejarano sticks with Dominican is no vote of confidence either. Throw out.
Curlin - Has done nothing wrong - probably the second choice when the gates open. I'm leaning to play against in terms of where I believe the best horses are coming from. The Oaklawn bunch just didn't look like it did the last two years. play at 8-1 or better but you won't get those odds.
Zanjero - Intriguing horse from off form...beat a head in the key prep of the season...gaining back in March against Circular Quay. The pace up front should give him something to run at. Under-rated rider adds to the plus column. LIVE LONGSHOT. (take 25-1 or better.)
Storm In May - someone had to run second in Arkansas....prefer others.
Imawildandcrazyguy - has excuses for most of his misses this spring. Had problems with statebreds as a 2 year old. I'll pass
Cowtown Cat - my friend Seth Benzel saddled this one in Illinois to a win. Pletchers mystery horse if you ask me...may be peaking. a flyer at 40-1 or more.
Street Sense - the class of the race...similar schedule that led to romp in the Breeders Cup. He exits hands down what is the key race leading to the derby and he is a must use. Again you must use him. Good connections and he runs well down the stretch.
Hard Spun - He may have ran his race 5 days ago. Nervous that he will be on the lead...super talented but may have problems with the distance.
Liquidity - he may like the surface and that could be significant with rain...likes to hit the board. Others are much more accomplished but from a handicapping view I would use him in supers and trifectas. Unlike others, he has posted a three figure speed figure which puts him in the mix.. proceed with caution.
Teuflesberg - exits the key race with neglible difference between top five. But was fading when the real running started. I'll pass.

Bwana Bull - just made the race. Off form he should be long odds but his chances are unrealistic - unless he didn't care for the Santa Anita surface. Could be whole different horse in Kentucky. Has tactical speed which is dangerous in these races as the winner is usually close to the pace. Interesting at 50-1 or more.
Nobiz Like Shobiz - his own trainer questions his ability to get the distance. He is super talented but this trip coul grueling for him. must rate to get a piece and will probably be an underlay -- demand value to use him.
Sam P. - No horse with this name should ever win the Derby - not cool enough. Posted good speed number over the track. Demand 30-1 or better and he could be a nice surprise based on his probable ability to get the distance and affinity for Churchill. Under rated rider to boot from good barn.
Scat Daddy - Hasn't raced since Florida Derby and I'm feeling that the race was not nearly as tough as the Bluegrass. Dominant in Florida but posted lowest career number at Churchill. I'll pass on him.
Tiago - closed well to win in Sanat Anita Derby.Has a nice story as his half bro Giacomo got the roses two years ago. Will probably be at decent odds and he will come running late....but to much traffic down the lane could compromise his chances. use underneath.
Circular Quay - Johnny V pilots what Pletcher believes is his strongest contender. I think he will come up short and tire due to the time off. I won't use him but I've been wrong before.
Stormello - couldn't beat Scat Daddy and that should be enough for me.
Any Given Saturday -faded against Nobiz like Shobiz. Will undoubtedly be a nice one but it could be too early for him make noise in this race. I'll pass.
Dominican - Exits the key race as the winner. Probably the wise guy horse and he may run even better off the polytrack races. He is legit to make some noise so put him on your tickets. Seems primed to be a contender.
Great Hunter - Will be a huge overlay off his 5th place the key race. Couldn't handle Street Sense at Churchill in October. I'm under the impression that this could be the horse to take the Derby - until the post draw. He will be way the hell out at the break and the need to save ground could present problems on the first turn. The race could have been over for him when he took the 20 hole... too much to do.

My selections: 7-3-9-19-6-15 Live longshot - 3

Good luck from Tim in Israel. This is what I bet these days.

Oh the joy of Vacations & Number 42.

On this day 60 years ago Jackie Robinson became the first African American to play Major League Baseball. Yes this is the big deal it is made out to be. Interestingly he was not the best of the Negro League players as Josh Gibson and Satchel Paige were amazing, record breaking ball players. Robinson's appeal to Branch Rickey was simply that he would tolerate the racism that would undoubtedly accompany the crossing of the color barrier.

Thank you Barry Bonds for tarnishing the legacy of Jackie Robinson. I hope that someday Barry meets the realization that the only place for him in Cooperstown is carrying a mop and bucket scrubbing the floors under Jackie's plaque. (Boo yah)

On another note --- We just arrived back from Greece. Did you know that such things as grilled bacon chops existed?

http://www.mentalfloss.com/blogs/archives/5152

Between the 2000 gallons of olive oil I consumed along with 27 Mythos, we had a great time. Gretchen was occupied at a conference so Donovan and I walked Athens, had lunch, and looked at statues. The Greeks are very friendly and since there are no gypsies the getting around is less stressful as Rome. Anyway, what is not to like about 1.60 euro pork shwarma pitas.

I've got to see 300. I would have made a great Spartan I feel. Sodus High school are Spartans but it is not the same as what the movie looks like....too many pizza shops. I enjoyed Sin City, but this looks way cooler. Check out the Peyton Manning Saturday Night Live on Youtube. There are some good skits of him "acting a fool."

(See the bottom of the blog as I've added the Youtube tool as a feature)

This is us at Epidaurus in Greece. The ampitheater there is ver famous for it's acoustics which have recently been explained by scientists.

I sang to Donovan there and it was pretty funny.

At the Parthenon -- What a cutie.

Epiduarus - the secret of the sound.

http://www.newswise.com/articles/view/528722/

Coming soon: Kentucky Derby picks and more photos (at the beach of course).

We are home in June. See you all soon.

Happy Birthday Auntie Adri

This kid loves to bite!!!

Happy St. Patricks Day.

I hope everyone had a great green day. Between “Smarch Maddness”(Simpson’s fans will get that one) and the Big Green Day of Indulgent Activity, I’m sure everyone is ready for a relaxing Sabbath. I will be posting some images from the holidays when I was home so that everyone can remember what we all look like. In the next couple of weeks we will be traveling to Athens Greece where Donovan, Gretchen, & I can take in the sites where Western Civilization was born. Hopefully I can meet some Socrates impersonators and get some good action shots of them imbibing hemlock.



This Friday is Hockey Marathon at School. Basically, the students play hockey for 36 hours straight. I’m looking forward to the event as the children really enjoy the festivities. The opening ceremonies are very elaborate and entail various performances by the students and professionals. I’ll post some pics of the event.

As a school teacher it is vital to help people develop ways toward understanding. To help you to understand the history behind St. Patrick’s Day I’ve decided to use a model that everyone is familiar with. The other great snake wrangler, Snake on a Plane’s very own Samuel Jackson. By clicking on the link below, you can test your knowledge (or understanding) of these two great personalities associated with pest control.

http://www.mentalfloss.com/worksheets/pdf/wrksht_snakes.pdf


Have great weekend & go UCLA.

-TIM

Tiggers Bounce !!!


Choo Chooo


All Bow before the Master.

My new blog Spot (Thanks Adri)

Whoops. I guess I kind have been busy since 2005. Taking the whole year of 2006 off was very refreshing. My laziness is noted....so I don't want to hear it. I would like to welcome to the world the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner Donovan Philip DePoint-Pettine. If you haven't heard he is way cuter than anything I would have thought capable of producing. He recently ate some sand and ate some bread -- see the photos.






The Cousins: Braydon & Donovan



Well here is the plan faithful audience. Bi-weekly posts of my thoughts and perceptions on all those things important as well as pictures, jokes, and links to stuff.
We just returned from Taba Heights in Egypt. It was pretty nice. Warm, the snorkeling was good as I chased a Lion fish for about 25meters until he chased me. The Sakara beer was tasty as it is brewed by real Egyptians wearing pharoah hats. I had about 25 egg slams with beef bacon and cheese. MMMM. Operation six pack has fallen behind schedule as a result. Baseball season kicks off March 3rd. After last years 12th place finish in Amsterdam I am hoping some improvement.




Next on the agenda are trips to Cairo and Athen in April. Home in June to get that kid up on water skis. More to follow. I may try some other type of blog to show some video has I've compiled some great footage of the boy motoring around.
Be back this weekend with some tid bits and flashbacks to 2006 as it appears to be missing from from the blog.
Look me up again.

-Tim

Aunt Adri & Donovan

The Pettine DePoint Family overlooking the Bosphorus Strait (look it up)

Donovan in Turkey

My Archive: http://journals.aol.com/koba817/AnAmericanWerewolfInIsrael

Wrestling at Mom & Dad's